Notebook: Michigan’s glimmers of hope ahead of Big Ten Tournament

Heading into the Big Ten Tournament, the external expectations for the Michigan softball team are on the floor.

The Wolverines’ 10-13 Big Ten record marks their first losing conference season in 40 years. And sputtering a 1-8 record over their last nine conference matches, Michigan sits at what many consider rock bottom amid their disappointing season. 

But while much negativity may surround the team, there is some reason for optimism ahead of its final opportunity.

Strength of schedule

While Michigan is certainly not a top team in the Big Ten, it’s hard to argue that the Wolverines are the 10th-best team in the conference, despite their 10th-place record. Compared to the teams seeded immediately above them — and particularly their opening-round opponent, Penn State — Michigan has faced the gauntlet of the conference.

Of the top four teams in the conference — Northwestern, Indiana, Minnesota and Nebraska — the Wolverines have played all four. The Nittany Lions, however, have played only Northwestern and Minnesota. Michigan is 3-9 against those teams, while Penn State is 1-5.

The Nittany Lions’ 11-11 conference record stems from the scheduling of Rutgers, Maryland, Illinois and Purdue to close out the season. Winning all four series, Penn State was able to bolster its record against some of the weakest teams in the conference — a stark contrast to the end of Michigan’s season.

Although the Wolverines were clearly a cut below the Big Ten’s elite teams, they were competitive in all but one of the eight end-of-season losses. Outside of the run-rule loss to Indiana, each loss was by a margin of three runs or less.

The win over Northwestern

Over those past nine conference games, Michigan’s only win over then-No. 21 Northwestern was an emphatic one. It wasn’t the inflection point the Wolverines hoped it’d be, but standing alone it’s still an impressive feat.

The Wildcats only lost three Big Ten games throughout the entire regular season. The first was a one-run loss to Iowa and the last was an upset from Rutgers. But the most striking is Michigan’s 15-run onslaught.

Northwestern swept both Minnesota and Nebraska, giving the Wolverines an accomplishment that the other top-seeded tournament teams don’t share. The Wolverines feat of beating the Wildcats is not shared by the other top seeds in the tournament.

While Michigan has disappointed expectations all season, that’s been due to how high expectations were set. The Wolverines reached their lofty ceiling in the win over the Wildcats — a ceiling that other Big Ten teams haven’t proved they’re capable of reaching.

“At this level, everybody has talent,” Michigan coach Bonnie Tholl said April 22. “It’s just a matter of your mental talent. Like if you can really bring your mental game every day. That often determines the outcome of games.”

The Wolverines seldom have the discipline to play at their best, but if they can, they are dangerous.

Single elimination format

In the Big Ten Tournament, Michigan doesn’t need to win any series, just standalone games.

The Wolverines, and their offense in particular, have been plagued by inconsistency throughout the season. That is especially evident as Michigan’s offense sits at the bottom of the Big Ten stat sheet.

“It doesn’t matter on paper who has the better batting average, better ERA, better slugging numbers,” Tholl said April 22. “That’s why you play the game because if you just went by the rankings, we would never have a game.”

While inconsistencies have rendered the Wolverines unable to sweep any team in a three-game series, this week they only need to best each foe once. And it’s hard to beat a team four times, which Indiana and Minnesota would need to do if Michigan is able to get past Penn State.

In a one game series, there is enough randomness for the Wolverines to beat anyone. And if Michigan’s stars — like junior catcher Keke Tholl or sophomore right-hander Lauren Derkowski — catch fire, that may be all it takes to spark runs and win a game. 

Because in a single elimination tournament, anything can happen. And with a few swings of the bat, May can have as much madness as March.